Wenyu Hong Kong Stock Research Society

Since May, ZTO Express has been pushed to the forefront because of the problem of pet blind boxes, and the express delivery industry has also been questioned because of the problem of receiving and sending live animals. Meanwhile, on May 20th, ZTO Express released its performance report for the first quarter of 2021.

From a fundamental point of view, the total revenue and business volume of this financial report showed rapid growth, and the net profit growth also turned from negative to positive. Affected by the financial report, ZTO Express stocks opened higher with a gap, with a current increase of 4.17% and a price of HK$ 249.8.

Today’s express delivery industry has formed a head-concentrated advantage, including SF Express, which focuses on speed, JD.COM, which started its own business, and its all-in-one post, backed by Extreme Rabbit Express in Pinduoduo, and Tongda Department, in which Ali holds shares. As the largest domestic market share, ZTO Express now has a market value of US$ 25.571 billion in the US stock market, while its market value has reached HK$ 207.325 billion in less than one year since it was listed on the Hong Kong stock market, ranking only behind SF Express, and it is a veritable behemoth in the express delivery industry.

Now, let’s take a look at what propped up the market value of Zhongtong through this quarter’s financial report.

According to the financial report, ZTO Express continues to maintain rapid growth in revenue. The financial report for the first quarter of 2021 shows that Zhongtong achieved revenue of 6.472 billion yuan, up 65.3% year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of 20.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020; The net profit was 534 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%.

The high growth of revenue was first of all due to the reduction of revenue base last year due to the epidemic. In the same period last year, ZTO Express achieved revenue of 3.916 billion yuan, down 14.39% compared with Q1 in 2019. If we compare this year with Q1 revenue in 2019, it will increase by 41.56%.

Secondly, the good situation of the postal industry this year has also opened up the revenue situation of Zhongtong. According to the data of Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, in the first quarter of 2021, China’s postal business totaled 302.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.3%. Affected by this, Zhongtong’s revenue achieved a high growth rate.

In terms of breakdown, Zhongtong’s revenue is mainly divided into express service, freight forwarding service, material sales and other four parts, with the growth rates of the first three reaching 65.2%, 66.8% and 47.0% respectively. At the same time, the revenue contribution rate of express delivery service reached 87.6%, which played a leading role in promoting the growth rate of total revenue. The growth of express service income mainly comes from the growth of parcel volume.

During the quarter, Zhongtong’s parcel volume was 4.475 billion pieces, an increase of 88.5% compared with the same period of last year, 13.5 percentage points higher than the industry average, and the market share reached 20.4%. The increase in parcel volume was partly due to the decline in price, and the unit price of Zhongtong parcel decreased by 12.4% in the quarter.

It is worth noting that Zhongtong’s goal of achieving 22.95-23.80 billion packages this year has not changed. At present, it has not reached the average of the four seasons in the first quarter, and it is under great pressure in the later period.

However, while the revenue has achieved high growth, the operating costs of Zhongtong are also high. In the first quarter of this year, Zhongtong’s operating cost was RMB 5.376 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%. Among them, the cost of trunk transportation and distribution center increased by 95.3% and 56.5% respectively.

According to this financial report, the high growth of trunk transportation cost is mainly due to the reduction of the base last year due to the toll exemption policy of the epidemic and the decline in diesel prices; The high cost increase of sorting center lies in the increase in the input of automation equipment.

Judging from the revenue and net profit of this quarter, Zhongtong has shown a good development trend. As the core package volume of the express delivery industry, it is also growing at a high speed, maintaining the first position in the industry. This is also the reason why the market value of Zhongtong ranks second in the industry. However, although Zhongtong ranks first in the number of parcels, it still faces a huge test in terms of revenue base.

Comparing the market, we will find that in terms of business volume, Zhongtong leads the industry and has become the first express delivery company with a market share of over 20% in 2020. However, in revenue, it still lags behind other companies.

By comparing the revenue and parcel quantity of SF Express and other Tongda departments, it is not difficult to see that Zhongtong is not dominant.

The disproportion between revenue and business volume reflects some problems of Zhongtong. In order to gain market share and increase business volume, Zhongtong keeps lowering the lower price limit, especially in the current fierce price war.

In mid-March this year, in Yiwu, the "capital of express delivery", Best announced that the delivery price was reduced directly from 1.6 yuan to 1.2 yuan, and then various express delivery companies followed suit.

Although the price war ended because of the postal administration’s suspension, it will not change the behavior of several head enterprises in the express delivery industry to reduce prices in order to share the market. Especially after the polar rabbit, backed by Pinduoduo, came in by express delivery, the price war had a new initiator.

The price competition has led to the continuous decline of single ticket income in the industry. According to the announcement, in April, the single ticket revenue of YTO Express express products was 2.15 yuan, down 8.28% year-on-year; The single ticket revenue of Yunda Express Service was 2.04 yuan, down 4.67% year-on-year; The single ticket revenue of Shentong Express Service was 2.13 yuan, down 16.47% year-on-year.

During this period, the single ticket price of Zhongtong dropped by 12.4%. According to the financial report of the first quarter of last year, after excluding cross-border business, the single ticket revenue was only 1.52 yuan, which was much lower than the price of competitors above 2 yuan.

On the other hand, in the express delivery industry, it has become a strategy to occupy the market at a low price, which is why the gross profit margin of Zhongtong has dropped from 20.9% last year to 16.9% in this period. Although Zhongtong has gained market scale in this process, at the same time, Zhongtong has fallen into a bigger trap. In the case that the single ticket income cannot be improved, the current revenue has already met the ceiling.

This requires Zhongtong to carry out internal changes and open a new express map. Obviously, Zhongtong is also using its own scale advantage to expand new subdivided tracks.

Since these years, the express delivery industry has undergone a reshuffle, and a number of express delivery companies such as Quanfeng, Express, Guotong and Rufengda have successively withdrawn. Wang Zhibin, a researcher at the National Engineering Laboratory of Logistics Information Sharing Technology and Application, said that the concentration of CR5 in the express delivery industry is close to 80%. This also indicates that the express delivery industry will gradually enter the oligopoly era. In a long-term stage, no one can kill anyone, but it is slowly consumed. The competition in the express delivery industry will also extend from the previous price competition, and gradually increase its market share by providing new services and new content.

Based on the current business volume, Zhongtong’s market share reached 20.4% in this quarter, still leading the industry, and it plans to reach 25% in 2022, which still has some pressure according to the current growth rate. This is why Zhongtong started to be a rural market.

In May 2020, Zhongtong Yunnan Kunming Dounan cold chain warehouse was officially opened; In January of this year, the intelligent e-commerce headquarters industrial park in southwest ZTO Express started construction in Chongqing Highway Logistics Base. The project is intended to build a whole industry chain of "from factory to user, from farm to dining table"; Three months later, Zhongtong reached a strategic cooperation with China Eastern Airlines Logistics Yunnan Branch, opened freight services on more than 40 direct flights, and launched time-limited parts services for the first day and the second morning to provide transportation services for agricultural products and fresh goods.

Undoubtedly, it is impossible to decide the outcome only by relying on the existing express delivery business. The next clearing of the express delivery company will be based on the combination of supply chain, cold chain and logistics, constantly refining new express delivery services, combining logistics with new retail, and constantly creating new service contents.

However, driven by policy support and market demand, this track is also crowded. At present, JD.COM cold chain logistics has started the mode of "cooperative warehouse of origin", which puts the supply chain ahead; Just recently, it reached a cooperation with Lanxi government on "e-commerce+agricultural products". Coincidentally, in May, when cherries are ripe, SF Express will distribute cold chain cars in several producing areas, and will invest about 110 all-cargo transport routes in eastern Shandong. At present, SF’s upstream and downstream network of agricultural products has covered 335 prefecture-level cities, serving more than 4,000 fresh varieties.

Facing the long-term aging service of JD.COM and SF Express, Zhongtong faces more challenges in fresh food and agricultural products, one is speed, and the other is service. In terms of speed, Zhongtong relies on its own cold chain trunk line. With the investment in these years, the problem is not big. In terms of service, it can be predicted that Zhongtong still faces some problems. For example, if we borrow the existing distribution system, the last mile problem can’t be solved well.

However, at present, agricultural products, fresh goods, etc. are still a huge incremental market with vast development space, and the win or loss is uncertain. Zhongtong’s penetration at the county level is also its advantage (the coverage rate of county-level cities is over 99%). If it can match the supply chain and logistics well in the future, it will have great opportunities.

Generally speaking, as a courier company with the largest domestic market share, Zhongtong still maintains its own advantages in business volume, while its revenue basically maintains a high-speed growth trend. In the future, after the express delivery market gradually enters the stock stage, it will be impossible to gain a breakthrough in market share through price war. In order to achieve a 5% growth in two years or finally reach a domestic market share of 30%, Zhongtong must develop new express delivery services. At present, under the background of rural revitalization, rural fresh agricultural products are one of the best breakthroughs. However, on the track surrounded by giants, whether Zhongtong can get what it wants can only wait and see.

　　China news agency, Moscow, June 30 (Reporter Wang Xiujun) Russian President Vladimir Putin connected with the Russian people through live television on the 30 th to answer various questions of public concern. According to RIA Novosti, the live connection lasted for 3 hours and 42 minutes, and Putin answered 68 questions.

　　According to the Kremlin Information Bureau, Putin received more than 2.2 million questions on this connection, including COVID-19 vaccination, people’s livelihood, economy and international affairs.

　　During the connection, Putin first talked about vaccination in COVID-19. He said that at present, more than 23 million Russians have been vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccine. I don’t support compulsory vaccination in COVID-19, but some places can implement compulsory vaccination for certain categories of citizens, especially high-risk groups, on the advice of medical experts.

　　Putin said that there are four kinds of COVID-19 vaccines in Russia, all of which are effective and safe. I inoculated myself with "satellite — V "vaccine, my daughter was also vaccinated with this vaccine, and the antibody was very high after vaccination. He stressed that there are many people who are opposed to vaccination. "We should not listen to rumors, but listen to experts’ opinions." Only vaccination can prevent the spread of COVID-19 epidemic.

　　When talking about people’s livelihood, Putin said that rising food prices are a global trend. At the beginning of last year, the price of Russian sugar rose by 41%, followed by sunflower oil. In order to curb food prices, the government has done a lot of work, including subsidizing raw material prices for production enterprises and raising export tariffs. The government is taking measures against prices.

　　Putin mentioned that 60% schools in Russia need maintenance and 10% schools need funds. The government has planned funds for these goals. In addition, Russia will allocate 500 billion rubles for the development of infrastructure in various places.

　　Putin said that Russia’s inflation was about 4% before, and now it has reached 5.9%. "Our goal is to curb inflation. I hope to push inflation to 4% ","It is very difficult to do this year, and the inflation level may reach 5% ".

　　Putin also talked about international issues in the connection. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, a British destroyer sailed into Russian territorial waters before, and the Russian ship was forced to fire a warning to drive it away. In this regard, Putin said that this incident is a provocative act with the participation of the United States. Because before the British destroyer sailed into Russian territorial waters, an American military reconnaissance plane took off from a military airport in Greece. Putin stressed that even if the Russian side sank the destroyer, the world would not be on the brink of World War III, because the western countries knew that they could not be winners.

　　Putin mentioned that he hoped that American experts could tell the political circles that the era of absolute hegemony in the United States was over. When everyone in America understands that the world is not unipolar, many things will change. He stressed that no matter what sanctions are imposed on Russia, Russia is developing, its national defense capability has reached a very high level, and some indicators have surpassed the United States.

　　Putin said that he hopes that the United States can realize that the world is changing. In this changing world, countries will reconsider their own priorities and interests. In the end, the world will be better and Russia-US relations will be normalized.

　　In addition, Putin also talked about the Ukrainian issue. He said that Ukrainian President Zelensky had put Ukraine "under external control". "Ukraine’s decision was not made by Kiev, but by Washington. Some decisions were made in Berlin and Paris. " Even so, I am still ready to meet with Zelensky, but I need to be clear about the content of my conversation with Zelensky.

　　The program "Direct Connection with Putin" was founded during Putin’s first presidential term. Because of its wide audience and high ratings, the Russian media called this program "Putin understands public opinion and is close to the people". (End)

Information Times (Reporter Huang Wenhao) On March 30th, the two-day "QQ Music Summit Ceremony" kicked off in Guangzhou University Town Sports Center. On the first night, the ceremony assembled powerful lineups such as Ella (Ella), Awakening, Tao Zhe, Roy, Lil Ghost, Xu Liang, Tia Ray, Diamond, Zhang Yuan and Zhou Zhennan. Roy won the honor of "Top Musician of the Year" and sang "Carnival in the Living Room" and "There is no real empathy in the world", which set off the climax of the audience. Ella, Tao Zhe and other performances made many viewers sigh "full of memories". When interviewed backstage, Ella shared the behind-the-scenes story of her new album, which was launched on the 31st. At the same time, she also said to her fans, "It is our honor to be a part of your youth."

Ella (Ella) appeared in Guangzhou to sing "Wish List". Photo courtesy of the organizer

Ella’s second solo new album "Bad Habits" was launched on March 31st, and she incorporated her nine-year growth experience into the album’s ten songs. Ella said in the interview that the title song of the album "Bad Habits" is a genre that she has never tried, so she especially wants to try it. Ella said, "Actually, I’m a migrant worker myself. My agent listens to me every day shouting that I want to take a vacation, want to rest, want to relax, and want to have a massage every day. It’s just writing my mind."

Ella revealed that her personality is naturally very easy to put pressure on herself, and it is easy to be tense. "A while ago, because of some minor physical conditions, such as easy acid and numbness, tight muscles and so on. I went to see a Chinese doctor, and the doctor told me something that made me cry. He said,’ Your body wants me to send you a message, and you have worked hard.’ Ella said that she was deeply poked by this sentence. "So now for me, I am learning to remind myself that sometimes I really need to be flexible, don’t push myself too hard, and really be with myself now."

Ella won the honor of "Top Hong Kong and Taiwan Female Singer of the Year" at the QQ Music Summit that night. She sang "Wish List" on the stage, which was said by many people that "opening your mouth is youth". As everyone’s "youth", Ella also shared during the interview: "I want to say that it is our honor to be a part of your youth. Because I often fly by plane these days, many fans will pick me up. Every time I look back, I can still see them waving goodbye to me. I was thinking in my heart, what kind of power can make you love someone so much? I am very grateful to everyone for loving us for so long. Thank you for making me your youth. Let’s move forward together and grow up together. "

Tao Zhe brought a new arrangement of "Reimagined". Photo courtesy of the organizer

Tao Zhe, who won the "Top Hong Kong and Taiwan Male Singer of the Year" that night, not only set off a "memory killing" with a song "Reimagined", but also revealed the latest trends of her new album during the interview. Tao Zhe said that the eighth solo album, which has been under preparation for nearly four years, will be officially released this year, and there will be more than ten new songs in addition to the songs that have been made public before, "hoping to bring some auditory stimulation to everyone". As for the overall visual design of the album, we are still communicating with the designers.

After ten years, he will hold two concerts in Foshan on April 20 ~ 21. Tao Zhe said that after four performances in Wuhan and Xiamen, he is in good condition. He hopes that his physical condition and voice condition can be maintained all the time, and he is looking forward to meeting Guangdong fans soon.

In the automobile market, every time a new car goes on the market, it means the beginning of an expectation and challenge. When the Ford Sharp L 2025 debuted with a brand-new attitude, it not only brought consumers a brand-new visual experience and technological experience, but also made no compromise in sticking to the bottom line of quality, demonstrating the Ford brand’s consistent pursuit of excellent quality.

Since its inception, Ford Sharp L has won the favor of consumers with its excellent performance, luxurious interior and practical space. However, the fierce market competition and the constant changes in consumer demand make every new car have to constantly break through itself in order to be invincible in the market. The listing of the 2025 Ford Sharp L is the best embodiment of this self-innovation. First of all, the new Ford Sharp L has made bold innovations in its design. The adoption of a more streamlined body design not only improves the aerodynamic performance of the vehicle, but also gives the vehicle a more modern and dynamic appearance. The design of the front face is sharper, and the perfect integration of LED headlights and air intake grille makes the whole front look wider and more atmospheric. The lines of the car body are smooth, and the design of the tail is fuller, which gives people a sense of stability and fashion.

However, the change in appearance is only part of the new Ford Sharp L. In the interior design, Ford also spared no effort to upgrade. Brand-new interior materials and technology not only enhance the sense of advanced inside the car, but also pay more attention to the handling of details. The center console adopts a larger touch screen, which is more convenient to operate, while retaining practical physical buttons, so that drivers can operate more safely during driving. The comfort and support of the seat have also been further improved, which can bring passengers the ultimate comfort experience whether it is long-distance driving or daily commuting. Of course, as an SUV, the driving performance and safety performance of Ford Sharp L can’t be ignored. The 2025 Ford Sharp L is equipped with the latest power system, providing a more powerful and efficient power output. Whether it is a city road or a rugged mountain road, this car can easily cope. In addition, Ford has also carried out a comprehensive upgrade in safety performance, equipped with the latest driver assistance system and active safety technology to ensure the safety of every passenger.

However, the most shocking thing is the persistence of the new Ford Sharp L in quality. In today’s increasingly fierce competition in the automobile market, many brands often lower the quality of their products at the expense of long-term reputation in pursuit of short-term profits. But Ford has always adhered to the bottom line of quality and carried out every production standard to the letter. From the selection of materials to the control of production technology, every link is striving for perfection to ensure that every Ford Sharp L can meet the highest quality standards. This persistence in quality is not only reflected in the manufacturing process of vehicles, but also in Ford’s emphasis on after-sales service. Ford knows that a good car should not only perform well when it leaves the factory, but also be consistent in use. Therefore, Ford provides comprehensive after-sales service and support to ensure that every car owner can get the most timely and professional help during use.

Generally speaking, the launch of the new Ford Sharp L 2025 is not only a product upgrade, but also a quality insistence. Ford brand’s innovative spirit and excellent craftsmanship in this car once again proved its leading position in the automobile industry. For consumers, this is not only the choice of a luxury SUV, but also a pursuit and commitment to quality life.

In today’s increasingly fierce market competition, the listing of Ford Sharp L 2025 undoubtedly provides consumers with a more trustworthy choice. It not only has the cutting-edge design of fashion and technology, but also adheres to its original intention in quality and does not reduce its points. This is not only an affirmation of Ford brand, but also the best feedback to every consumer who pursues excellent quality. It is expected that the brand-new Ford Sharp L will continue to write its brilliant chapter in the future market.